Slow recovery in heavy commercial vehicle registrations ahead – pending developments in gross fixed capital formation

Slow recovery in heavy commercial vehicle registrations ahead – pending developments in gross fixed capital formation

July 1, 2020

Enhancing forecasting precision is of the utmost importance when planning production volumes and investments. In this case study, we forecast quarterly registrations of heavy commercial vehicles in the European Union. We found that traditional forecasting models appear to be reliable, but using Indicio leads to major improvements in accuracy compared to the traditional models over … Read More

Stock market effects on apartment prices in Swedish metropolitan regions

Stock market effects on apartment prices in Swedish metropolitan regions

March 19, 2020

We forecast that the virus induced stock market crash will trigger a downturn in Swedish apartment prices over the coming months. Our models however suggest that the price drop could be quite mild and temporary. In January 2019 we put out a forecast of Swedish apartment and house prices where Indicio´s models indicated that prices … Read More

Indicator mining reveals where the recession will hit next

Indicator mining reveals where the recession will hit next

October 4, 2019

The results from our GDP models show that many countries will probably avoid a recession, with the UK as a possible exception, although they will face low or declining growth in the coming years. Some Euro area countries like Spain and Austria will even do rather well. In this article, we forecast GDP with data … Read More

Swedish Home Sales – Forecasts reveal slow decline ahead

Swedish Home Sales – Forecasts reveal slow decline ahead

September 4, 2019

In this study we use Indicio, a forecasting tool developed by Indicio Technologies, to generate forecasts of Swedish existing home sales. We forecast house- and apartments sales in both Sweden and the Stockholm region. Our modelling suggests that sales of one and two dwellings houses are highly interrelated with the development of mortgage rates and … Read More

How Low Can You Go? – The Outlook for Swedish Housing Construction

How Low Can You Go? – The Outlook for Swedish Housing Construction

May 24, 2019

We forecast that residential investment will decline by almost 17 percent over the years 2018-2021, using a new forecast modelling tool. The number of started dwellings is expected to decrease from a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) of 68 000 in the fall of 2016 to slightly below 52 000 in the beginning of 2021. … Read More

Swedish Housing Prices: Leading indicators and scenario analysis

Swedish Housing Prices: Leading indicators and scenario analysis

January 23, 2019

The historical relationship, as estimated by a variety of statistical models, between Swedish house prices and their driving forces suggests that prices will increase at an annual rate of two to three percent over the next one to two years. Large price falls would only occur if equity markets fell significantly, household income fell, interest … Read More