Indicator mining reveals where the recession will hit next

Indicator mining reveals where the recession will hit next

October 4, 2019

The results from our GDP models show that many countries will probably avoid a recession, with the UK as a possible exception, although they will face low or declining growth in the coming years. Some Euro area countries like Spain and Austria will even do rather well. In this article, we forecast GDP with data … Read More

Swedish Home Sales – Forecasts reveal slow decline ahead

Swedish Home Sales – Forecasts reveal slow decline ahead

September 4, 2019

In this study we use Indicio, a forecasting tool developed by Indicio Technologies, to generate forecasts of Swedish existing home sales. We forecast house- and apartments sales in both Sweden and the Stockholm region. Our modelling suggests that sales of one and two dwellings houses are highly interrelated with the development of mortgage rates and … Read More

How Low Can You Go? – The Outlook for Swedish Housing Construction

How Low Can You Go? – The Outlook for Swedish Housing Construction

May 24, 2019

We forecast that residential investment will decline by almost 17 percent over the years 2018-2021, using a new forecast modelling tool. The number of started dwellings is expected to decrease from a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) of 68 000 in the fall of 2016 to slightly below 52 000 in the beginning of 2021. … Read More

Swedish Housing Prices: Leading indicators and scenario analysis

Swedish Housing Prices: Leading indicators and scenario analysis

January 23, 2019

The historical relationship, as estimated by a variety of statistical models, between Swedish house prices and their driving forces suggests that prices will increase at an annual rate of two to three percent over the next one to two years. Large price falls would only occur if equity markets fell significantly, household income fell, interest … Read More

Imminent risk of recession in the euro area

Imminent risk of recession in the euro area

January 22, 2019

Growth in the euro area, Sweden’s most vital export market, slowed considerably over the course of 2018. When presenting its new macroeconomic projection in December, however, the European Central Bank, or ECB, predicted that growth would recover. We have analysed a number of different forecast models and scenarios and can state that the ECB’s assessment, … Read More

Macro Forecasting – New drivers of inflation

Macro Forecasting – New drivers of inflation

September 3, 2018

Over the last few decades, structural changes have affected the drivers of inflation, from domestic factors on which central banks normally focus, such as wages, productivity and inflation expectations, to more global factors. Analyses performed using a new forecasting tool support these results. The latest information available indicates that inflation in Sweden will fall to … Read More