An overview of June
EU heavy vehicle registrations saw the number of heavy commercial vehicles registered hit 22,482 units, making this an 4.6% YoY growth. Mixed performances were recorded - the major markets that recorded strong performances were Spain (+30.8%), Italy (+10.2%) and Poland (+10.4%). Germany remained stable (0.1%) and France witnessed an 8.2% decrease.
This seasonal upturn was anticipated in the last Friday Forecast, with the forecast accuracy standing at 96.3%.
What does July look like?
We forecasted the European heavy vehicle market using Indicio. We built 33 univariate and multivariate models, composed of 15 leading indicators on data from 2003 to 2022. Indicio weighted each model depending on performances at each horizon to create an aggregate forecast. We anticipate 20.58k (10.16 - 30.99) new heavy vehicle registrations in July, a 9.6% decrease from June and a 5.3% YoY increase compared to July 2021.
Our indicator analysis algorithm tested these different variables to predict heavy vehicle registrations and these are the top 3 indicators ranked:
1. EU, Consumer Price Index, All-Items HICP
2. World, Crude Oil, Brent, Spot, FOB North Sea, ICE, Close, USD
3. Euro Area, Foreign Trade, CPB World Trade Monitor, Import, Price, Index, USD
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