How close were we in predicting the uptrend of new heavy vehicles for January?

How close were we in predicting the uptrend of new heavy vehicles for January?

Read time
5 mins
CATEGORY
Forecasts
Published on
February 25, 2022


We anticipated this uptrend in our last forecast with the January seasonal pattern. In absolute terms, these numbers are within the 95% confidence interval that we set: 20K - 25.72K. 


Our indicator analysis algorithm tested 14 different variables to predict heavy trucks registrations and the 3 best were ranked as such: 
  1. Euro Area, Business Climate Business Surveys, DG ECFIN
  2. Euro Area, Economic Activity Indicator Business Surveys, CEPR
  3. Euro Area, Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, Employment Expectations Over the Next 3 Months

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Averaging forecasts from 20 univariate and multivariate models, we anticipate 19.66K (16.39 - 22.35) new registrations in February, a slight 4.6% decline from January, but stable from February 2021. 

Our estimates for 2022 remain stable with around 268K heavy trucks registrations. 

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