How close were we in predicting the uptrend of new heavy vehicles for January?

How close were we in predicting the uptrend of new heavy vehicles for January?

Published on
February 25, 2022
CATEGORY
Forecasts
Read time
5 mins


We anticipated this uptrend in our last forecast with the January seasonal pattern. In absolute terms, these numbers are within the 95% confidence interval that we set: 20K - 25.72K. 


Our indicator analysis algorithm tested 14 different variables to predict heavy trucks registrations and the 3 best were ranked as such: 
  1. Euro Area, Business Climate Business Surveys, DG ECFIN
  2. Euro Area, Economic Activity Indicator Business Surveys, CEPR
  3. Euro Area, Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, Employment Expectations Over the Next 3 Months


Averaging forecasts from 20 univariate and multivariate models, we anticipate 19.66K (16.39 - 22.35) new registrations in February, a slight 4.6% decline from January, but stable from February 2021. 

Our estimates for 2022 remain stable with around 268K heavy trucks registrations. 


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