We anticipated this uptrend in our last forecast with the January seasonal pattern. In absolute terms, these numbers are within the 95% confidence interval that we set: 20K - 25.72K.
Our indicator analysis algorithm tested 14 different variables to predict heavy trucks registrations and the 3 best were ranked as such:
- Euro Area, Business Climate Business Surveys, DG ECFIN
- Euro Area, Economic Activity Indicator Business Surveys, CEPR
- Euro Area, Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, Employment Expectations Over the Next 3 Months
Averaging forecasts from 20 univariate and multivariate models, we anticipate 19.66K (16.39 - 22.35) new registrations in February, a slight 4.6% decline from January, but stable from February 2021.
Our estimates for 2022 remain stable with around 268K heavy trucks registrations.