How accurate can you get when predicting heavy trucks registrations?

How accurate can you get when predicting heavy trucks registrations?

Read time
5 mins
Published on
April 1, 2022

We forecasted February's figures

In February, 19,69K heavy vehicles over 16T were registered in the EU, stable compared to February 2021. Good figures in the French, German and Spanish markets. On the other hand, the largest market for heavy trucks, Poland, saw a 17.9% decline from February last year. 

We anticipated this stagnation in our last Friday Forecast, with Indicio predicting 19.66K vehicles in February, in other terms a modest 99.85% forecast accuracy.

Our indicator analysis algorithm tested 15 different variables to predict heavy trucks registrations and the 3 best were ranked as such: 

  1. Sales of Motor Vehicles - Orders Expectations over the Next 3 Months
  2. Euro Area, Business Surveys, CEPR, Economic Activity Indicator
  3. China Freight Traffic

What does March look like?

Averaging forecasts from 35 univariate and multivariate models, we anticipate 26.15K (24.45 - 27.86) new registrations in March, a seasonal 32.8% increase from February, and slightly higher than March 2021 (5.9%).

We revised our estimates for the total 2022 registrations, going from 266K heavy trucks to 257.1K. 

Book a demo and learn more about how to you can achieve highest accuracy in your forecasts.

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