January figures continued on the uptrend, with 760,041K registrations, with strong gains in three out of the four key markets - Spain (+51.4%), Italy (+19%) and France (+8-8%). The other key market, Germany, saw a 2.6% decline.
Using the coefficient method, we forecasted the registration numbers for January, and the result came in with a 99% accuracy against the reported registration numbers. This growth is modest relative to the baseline figures in the previous year - with January registering one of the lowest number of registrations in 2022.
Accounting for about 10% of passenger car registrations, Renault came in strong at +24.6%, with Toyota Group (+12.6%) and Volkswagen Group not far behind at +10.6% YoY growth.
When we forecasted the registration numbers for January, the result came in with a 99% accuracy against the reported registration numbers.
Now, let’s take a look at the forecasted numbers for February.
How does February's figures look like?
We forecasted the European passenger car market by building 35 models composed of 30 leading indicators on data from 2003 to 2022. The indicator analysis strategy we selected was the coefficient search.The top 3 leading indicators that were the most relevant were::
Real Disposable Personal Income
China Freight Waterways
China Freight Traffic
Indicio then weighted each model depending on performances at each horizon to create an aggregate forecast. The top-performing (by definition, most accurate) models were the VARX Lasso, VAR Elastic Net and VECM Lasso.
We anticipate 771,0K passenger car registrations in Feb which represents a 7.16% YoY increase compared to Feb 2022.