Mixed performances in the largest European markets with France and Italy witnessing stable figures (+1,6% and +1.9%) while Registrations in Germany and Spain declined by 9.2% and 5.8% respectively. On the other hand, smaller markets in Eastern Europe such as Romania, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Slovakia recorded very strong growth. 

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Despite the current disturbances on the supply side, we anticipated this seasonal upturn in our last Friday Forecast, with 92% accuracy. 

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Our indicator analysis algorithm tested 15 different variables to predict heavy trucks registrations and the 3 best were ranked as such: 

1. EU 27, Productivity, Costs & Hours Worked, Number of Working Days, Per Month (Weighted Average)
2. Euro Area, Foreign Trade, CPB World Trade Monitor, Import, Price, Index, USD
3. Euro Area, Business Surveys, CEPR, Economic Activity Indicator

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What does April look like?

Averaging forecasts from 35 univariate and multivariate models, we anticipate 20.58K (17.21 - 23.95) new registrations in April, a seasonal 14.6% decrease from March, and lower than April 2021 (-6%).

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