How did July look?
Attributing to the ongoing semiconductor shortage, Germany (-12.9%) and Spain (-12.5%) posted the strongest declines in July. Alongside them, these other key markets continued to witness downtrends, with France (-7.1%) and Italy (0.8%) posting declines.
August tells a different story.
For the first time in over a year, we see growth in the EU passenger car market with 650,305 units registered. This was driven by gains seen in all key EU markets - Italy (+9.9%), Spain (+9.1%), France (+3.8%) and Germany (+3.0%). However this result still stands far below pre-pandemic levels.
These European manufacturers saw an improvement, with Stellantis (10.6%) and Volksvagen group (+7.9%) displaying YoY growth.
The forecast for September
We forecasted the European passenger car market by building 35 models composed of 13 leading indicators on data from 2003 to 2022. Indicio then weighted each model depending on performances at each horizon to create an aggregate forecast. We anticipate a downtrend with 661,26K passenger car registrations in Sept, which represents a -6.9% YoY decrease compared to Sept 2021.