Overview of October's heavy vehicles registrations

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Amidst the continuing decline seen in total registrations in the commercial vehicle segment, October registrations in the heavy vehicles (above 16T) segment saw an uptrend, reporting an 18% YoY increase, landing at 23,592K.

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This was primarily driven by growth in the key EU markets. A double-digit YoY percentage gain was seen in Italy (+33.7%), followed by France (+7.6%), Spain (+7.3%), and Germany (+1.2%), respectively.

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Using Indicio, we selected 13 leading indicators that were most relevant to the main variable, tested the strength of their predictive power, and added the outliers that were automatically identified. The multivariate models that best predicted these numbers were the VARX Lasso models.

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Our forecasted numbers came within a hair of October’s reported registration numbers - 24.29K registrations against the reported 23,59K, a 97% forecast accuracy.

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Our indicator analysis algorithm tested these different variables to predict heavy vehicle registrations, and these are the top 3 indicators ranked:

1. Trend: Heavy Vehicles 16T

2. World, Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Total, Index

3. Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, Sale of Motor Vehicles, Orders Expectations Over the Next 3 Months, SA

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What’s the outlook like for November?

We built 35 models composed of 13 leading indicators on data from 2003 to 2022. Indicio then weighted each model depending on performances at each horizon to create an aggregate forecast. The indicator analysis strategy we selected was the coefficient search.

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We anticipvehiclewntrend with 21.79K heavy vehicles (above 16T) registrations in November, representing a 9.6% YoY increase compared to November 2021. 

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