An overview of April
In April 2022, EU heavy vehicle registrations continued to fall to 19.878 units. The registrations decreased by 10.8% compared to April 2021, driven by the weak results seen in some of the largest markets.
Italy, Germany and Poland and Spain witnessed downtrends YoY -22%, -18.5%, -16.7% and -0.5 respectively. However, France was the only key market to witness a 3.6% growth.
What does May look like?
We forecasted the European heavy vehicle market using Indicio. We built 22 univariate and multivariate models, composed of 15 leading indicators on data from 2003 to 2022. Indicio weighted each model depending on performances at each horizon to create an aggregate forecast. We anticipate a slight uptrend with 20.00k (14.69 - 25.30) new heavy vehicle registrations in May, a seasonal 0.6% increase from April and a -2.9% YoY decrease compared to May 2021.
Our indicator analysis algorithm tested these different variables to predict heavy vehicle registrations and the 3 best were ranked as such:
1. Euro Area, Business Surveys DG ECFIN, Business Climate
2. Employment Expectations over Next 3 Months
3. Orders Expectations over Next 3 Months
What we foresee for June
We anticipate a slight uptrend with 23.48k heavy vehicle registrations in June, which represents a seasonal 17.4% increase from May, and a 7.6% YoY decrease compared to June 2021.
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