How Indicio improves forecast accuracy performance
Rapidly build a wide range of sophisticated and statistically robust forecasts with zero coding.
Expect increased accuracy, transparency, and speed.
Ours users have detected trend shifts at least 1-2 months earlier, with a 40-60% improvement in overall accuracy.
In a fraction of the time. you can input and select the leading indicators that matter to your business.
Indicio transforms your data, build & backtest models, and performs model averaging, pointing out which of these indicators are actually relevant to your main variable (Be it sales or demand).
Spend your time gaining actual insights to move the needle, instead of getting caught up in building the statistical framework.
Instead of relying solely on sales historical data, we use multivariate analysis to uncover more intricate relationships.
Each indicator is defined as a function of the others in order to see how they interact.
This way, instead of treating each indicator's impact separately, our models capture interactions between them and their influence on your sales.
By using Lasso and other regularisation techniques through cross-validation, we ensure that only the relevant indicators are represented, delivering the most accurate results.
For companies that rely on qualitative forecasting methods or planning tools that only take historical data into consideration, biases can impact forecast accuracy negatively.
To meet that challenge, Indicio runs advanced statistical models,
unaffected by subjectivity.
All the models are then weighted based on their performance, ultimately increasing forecast accuracy.
We've made it easy to conduct a historical accuracy evaluation.
This includes backtesting and evaluating model performance, Indicio creates previous forecasts that are compared against actual outcome.
We've built an econometric model (VAR) to identify leading indicators. Vector autoregression is a workhorse model in macroeconomics that defines each indicator as a function of other indicators. This way, instead of treating each indicator’s impact separately, the model captures interactions between them and their influence on your sales.
By using a lasso penalty through cross-validation, we ensure that only the relevant indicators are represented, delivering the most accurate results.
Forecast every possible level in the hierarchy.
This means you'll get demand forecasts that are coherent with top-level forecasting results.
Inflation set to increase? Crude oil prices to dip?
Get increased control and optimize capacity to prepare for both pessimistic and optimistic situations.
Our customers have seen a minimum of 30% improvement in forecast accuracy after using Indicio when forecasting.