This was primarily driven by double-digit YoY growth in Poland (36.3%) and Spain(+27%), followed by key EU markets Germany (+15.8%), followed by Italy (+10.7%), and France (+6.6%)
Using Indicio, we selected 13 leading indicators that were most relevant to the main variable, tested the strength of their predictive power, and added the outliers that were automatically identified. The multivariate models that best predicted these numbers were the LSTM and VARX Lasso models.
The numbers forecasted for November had a 90% accuracy against the reported registration numbers 21.79K registrations against the reported 24.03K.
Our indicator analysis algorithm tested these different variables to predict heavy vehicle registrations and these are the top 3 indicators ranked:
1. Trend: Heavy Vehicles 16T
2. World, Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Total, Index
3. Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, Employment Expectations Over the Next Three Months
What’s the outlook like for December?
We built 35 models composed of 13 leading indicators on data from 2003 to 2022. Indicio then weighted each model depending on performances at each horizon to create an aggregate forecast. The indicator analysis strategy we selected was the coefficient search.
We anticipate a downtrend with 20.85K heavy vehicles (above 16T) registrations in Dec, representing a 0.3% YoY increase compared to Dec 2021.