An overview of July
July’s result was largely driven by Central European countries (+15%). August was an even more positive month, with nearly all EU markets posting strong gains. Predominantly driven by growth seen in the Central European countries, July’s numbers gained +2.8%.
This positive trajectory continued in August, posting a +24% gain with 17,358 units registered. This was seen in nearly all EU markets - key markets like Poland (41.1%) Spain (+35.5%), France (+10.2%), Germany (+7.2%) posted growth respectively.
What’s the outlook like for September?
We forecasted the European passenger car market by building 35 models composed of 13 leading indicators on data from 2003 to 2022. Indicio then weighted each model depending on performances at each horizon to create an aggregate forecast. We anticipate an uptrend with 22.56K heavy vehicles (above 16T) registrations in September, which represents a 22.9% YoY increase compared to September 2021.
Our indicator analysis algorithm tested these different variables to predict heavy vehicle registrations and these are the top 3 indicators ranked:
1. Trend: Heavy Vehicles 16T
2. Euro Area, Business Surveys, DG ECFIN, Business Climate
3. Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, Sale of Motor Vehicles, Orders Expectations Over the Next 3 Months, SA
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