Nowcasting Euro Area inflation

Nowcasting the inflation in Euro Area requires analyzing a blend of high-frequency indicators, like prices of Energy, gasoline, electricity, transport, food and lumber as they provide insight into the overall price development.

< 1 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

17+

Relevant
leading
indicators

99,7%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.

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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
Euro Area, HICP, All-Items, Index

Indicator name	Influence
Euro Area, Leading Indicators, Citi, Commodity Terms of Trade Index, Index	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Euro Area, Gasoline, Euro-Super 95, Weighted Average, EUR	⭐⭐⭐
Euro Area, Equity Indices, FTSEurofirst, Oil & Gas, Energy, 300 Index, Price Return, Close, EUR	⭐⭐
Euro Area, ECB Consolidated Balance Sheet & Flows of MFI Sector, Eurosystem, Total Assets & Liabilities, All, EUR	⭐
Euro Area, FX Spot Rates, Macrobond, EUR per USD	⭐
Euro Area, LNG, Stock Level, Europe Total, Current Send-Out	⭐
Euro Area, Equity Indices, FTSEurofirst, Food Producers, Food Producers, 300 Index, Price Return, Close, GBP	⭐
World, Baltic Exchange, Shipping, Dry Index (BDI), USD	⭐
EU, Consumer Surveys, DG ECFIN, Consumer Confidence, Balance	⭐
Euro Area, HICP, Services (Overall Index Excluding Goods), Index	⭐
Euro Area, LPG, LPG - Motor Fuel, EUR	⭐
Euro Area, Commodity Indices, HWWI, Weighting Period 2020-2021, HWWI Index excluding Energy, Average of Period, EUR	⭐
Germany, Leading Indicators, Central Bank of Germany, Weekly Activity Index (WAI), Index	⭐
Euro Area, Commodity Indices, HWWI, Weighting Period 2012-2021, Food Index, Average of Period, EUR	⭐
Euro Area, Commodity Indices, HWWI, Weighting Period 2020-2021, HWWI Index, Average of Period, EUR	⭐
Euro Area, Gas Oil, Heating Gas Oil, Weighted Average, EUR	⭐

Top indicators identified

Euro Area, Leading Indicators, Citi, Commodity Terms of Trade Index, Index

The Commodity Terms of Trade Index from Citi is an index that measures the ratio of export to import prices of commodities within the Euro Area. This index reflects changes in the terms of trade for commodities, indicating whether the region is benefiting from favorable price movements in the commodities it exports versus those it imports. A higher index value suggests improved terms of trade, meaning the region can export commodities at relatively higher prices, while a lower value indicates a decline in favorable trade conditions. It serves as an important indicator of economic health and trade dynamics in the Euro Area.

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Euro Area, Gasoline, Euro-Super 95, Weighted Average, EUR

The average price of Euro-Super 95 gasoline across the Eurozone, expressed in euros. This gasoline type, which is widely used across Europe, meets the Euro-Super 95 fuel standard, typically with an octane rating of 95. The price is weighted to account for differences in consumption levels across various countries in the Euro Area, providing an overall view of gasoline prices in the region. This data helps monitor fuel price trends and energy costs for consumers and businesses across the Eurozone.

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Euro Area, Equity Indices, FTSEurofirst, Oil & Gas, Energy, 300 Index, Price Return, Close, EUR

The closing price of the FTSEurofirst 300 Index for the Oil & Gas and Energy sectors in the Euro Area, measured in euros (EUR). This index reflects the price performance of 300 leading companies in the oil, gas, and energy industries across Europe. The "Price Return" indicates the index value based solely on price changes, excluding dividends. It provides insight into the overall performance and trends within the energy sector in European equity markets.

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