Nowcasting the US inflation

Nowcasting the inflation in US requires analyzing a blend of high-frequency indicators, like prices of Energy, gasoline, electricity, transport, food and lumber as they provide insight into the overall price development.

< 1 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

14+

Relevant
leading
indicators

95,2%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.

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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
United States, Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers, U.S. City Average, All Items, SA, Change Y/Y

Indicator name	Influence
United States, Commodities & Energy Prices, Retail Fuel Prices, Gasoline, Regular, All Formulations, Average Price, USD	⭐⭐⭐⭐
United States, Beef, Select Carcass Value, USD	⭐⭐⭐
United States, Oil & Gas, Rig Counts, By Basin, Total US Rig Count, Gas	⭐⭐
United States, Traffic, Rail, Intermodal Units Originated, Total	⭐
United States, Real Estate Indicators, Mortgage Applications, Market Composites, Purchase Index, MBA, Calendar Adjusted, SA, Index, MBA	⭐
United States, Consumer Surveys, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, Inflation Expectations, Median 1-Year Ahead, SA	⭐
United States, Mortgage Lending Rates, MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, MBA, Jumbo, 30-Year, Total Points	⭐
United States, Traffic, Rail, Intermodal Units Originated, Total	⭐
United States, Real Estate Prices, Home Value Index, All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op), United States, SA, USD, Zillow, Residential, Prices	⭐
United States, Wheat, No. 1 Hard Winter, Kansas City, Close, USD	⭐
United States, Lumber, Spruce-Pine Fir 2x4, Close, USD	⭐
United States, Real Estate Indicators, Mortgage Applications, Market Composites, ARM Index, MBA, Calendar Adjusted, SA	⭐
United States, Real Estate Indicators, Mortgage Applications, Market Composites, Market Index, MBA, Index, MBA	⭐
United States, Electricity, New York City, USD	⭐
United States, Equity Indices, S&P, 500, Index, Price Return, Close, USD	⭐

Top indicators identified

United States, Commodities & Energy Prices, Retail Fuel Prices, Gasoline, Regular, All Formulations, Average Price, USD

The Retail Gasoline Prices tracks the average retail price of regular gasoline, across all formulations, in U.S. dollars per gallon. This figure reflects the nationwide average price consumers pay at the pump for regular-grade gasoline. It serves as an important indicator of fuel costs for consumers and businesses and provides insights into broader energy market trends, including supply, demand, and price fluctuations in the oil and fuel sectors.

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United States, Beef, Select Carcass Value, USD

The Select Carcass Price of Beef, represents the market price of select-grade beef carcasses, measured in U.S. dollars. This value reflects the wholesale price for beef that meets the USDA’s select quality grade, which is typically leaner and less marbled than higher-grade beef. The select carcass value is an important indicator for the beef industry, influencing pricing decisions for producers, retailers, and consumers. It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the U.S. beef market.

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United States, Oil & Gas, Rig Counts, By Basin, Total US Rig Count, Gas

The "Total US Rig Count, Gas" refers to the number of active rigs in the United States that are specifically drilling for natural gas. This count is broken down by basin, showing the distribution of gas drilling activity across various regions. The rig count is a key indicator of the level of exploration and production activity in the oil and gas sector, with higher counts suggesting increased industry activity and potential future production. It provides insights into the health of the natural gas sector and overall energy market trends in the U.S.

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