Nowcasting GDP in Germany

Nowcasting the GDP in Germany requires analyzing a blend of high-frequency indicators like Weekly Activity Index, IFO - Manufacturing Expectations the Next 6 Months, ZEW  Financial Market Report, IFO Trade index, GFK Consumer Climate, as they provide insight into the overall health of the economy.

< 1 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

28+

Relevant
leading
indicators

99,4%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
Germany, Gross Domestic Product, Total, Calendar Adjusted (X13 JDemetra+), Constant Prices, SA (X13 JDemetra+), Chained, Index
Indicator name Influence
Germany, Business Surveys, Ifo, Business Survey, Manufacturing Industry, Total, Expectations the Next 6 Months, Balance, SA ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Germany, Leading Indicators, Central Bank of Germany, Weekly Activity Index (WAI), Index ⭐⭐⭐
Germany, Economic Surveys, ZEW, Financial Market Report, Economic Expectations, Balance ⭐⭐
Germany, Business Surveys, Ifo, Business Survey, Trade, Assessment of the Business Situation, Balance, SA (X-13 ARIMA) ⭐
Germany, Domestic Trade, Wholesale Trade, Turnover, Consumption-Related Trade, Trend Adjusted (BV4.1), Current Prices, Index ⭐
Germany, Construction Finances, Total, Residential Buildings, Permitted, EUR ⭐
Germany, Consumer Surveys, GfK, Consumer Climate, Consumer Climate Indicator ⭐
Germany, DG ECFIN, Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, Except of Motor Vehicles & Motorcycles, Past 3 Months ⭐
Germany, Foreign Trade, Total, Export, Calendar Adjusted (X13 JDemetra+), SA (X13 JDemetra+), EUR ⭐
Germany, Baden-Württemberg, Labor Turnover, Unfilled Vacancies, By State, Total, SA ⭐
Germany, Consumer Price Index, Total, Index ⭐
Germany, Labor Turnover, Unfilled Vacancies, Total, Calendar Adjusted, SA ⭐
Germany, Foreign Trade, Total, Trade Balance, Calendar Adjusted (X13 JDemetra+), SA (X13 JDemetra+), EUR ⭐
Germany, Economic Surveys, DG ECFIN, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Balance, SA, Index ⭐
Germany, Economic Surveys, DG ECFIN, Employment Expectations Indicator, Balance, SA, Index ⭐
Germany, Consumer Surveys, DG ECFIN, Consumer Confidence, Balance, SA ⭐
Germany, Economic Surveys, DG ECFIN, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Balance, SA, Index ⭐
Germany, Business Surveys, Ifo, Business Survey, Trade, Expectations with Regard to Employees in the Next 3 Months, Balance ⭐
Germany, Truck Toll Mileage Index, Total, Calendar Adjusted (X13 JDemetra+), SA (X13 JDemetra+), Index ⭐
Germany, Foreign Trade, Total, Import, Calendar Adjusted (X13 JDemetra+), SA (X13 JDemetra+), EUR ⭐

Top indicators identified

Germany, Business Surveys, Ifo, Manufacturing Industry, Total, Expectations the Next 6 Months, Balance, SA

The IFO manufacturing expectations reflect the sentiment within the manufacturing industry regarding future economic conditions and overall business prospects over the next six months. Positive values indicate optimism, while negative values suggest pessimism.

How we can help you

Germany, Leading Indicators, Central Bank of Germany, Weekly Activity Index (WAI), Index

The Weekly Activity Index (WAI) for Germany, compiled by the Central Bank of Germany, is a leading economic indicator that tracks real-time economic activity on a weekly basis. It is an index that combines various high-frequency data sources, such as financial transactions, mobility trends, and energy consumption, to provide an early signal of the overall economic performance. The WAI helps gauge short-term economic fluctuations and offers timely insights into the state of the economy. A rising index value indicates increased economic activity, while a falling value suggests a slowdown.

How we can help you

Germany, Economic Surveys, ZEW, Financial Market Report, Economic Expectations, Balance

The ZEW Economic Expectations tracks the sentiment of financial market experts regarding the country's future economic development. This survey is a key indicator of future economic trends, with a positive balance suggesting optimism about economic growth, while a negative balance indicates a more pessimistic outlook. The ZEW Economic Expectations provide early signals of potential shifts in Germany's economic performance.

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