Nowcasting Economic Sentiment Indicator in EU

Nowcasting the Economic Sentiment Indicator in EU requires analyzing a blend of high-frequency indicators like the Yield for Spain, Germany, and France, Economic Surprise Index from Citi, and DAX 40, as they provide an early insight into the overall health of the economy.

< 1 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

25+

Relevant
leading
indicators

99,7%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.

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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
EU, Economic Surveys, DG ECFIN, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Balance, SA, Index

Indicator name	Influence
Spain, Government Benchmarks, Bank of Spain, 3 Year, Yield	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Germany, Government Benchmarks, Macrobond, 3 Month, Yield	⭐⭐⭐
France, Yield Curve, CNO-TEC, 3 Year, Yield	⭐⭐
Euro Area, Leading Indicators, Citi, Economic Surprise Index, Index	⭐
Germany, Equity Indices, Deutsche Boerse, DAX, 40 Index, Total Return, Close, EUR	⭐
Germany, Government Benchmarks, Macrobond, 2 Year, Yield	⭐
Spain, Equity Indices, Madrid Stock Exchange, IBEX 35 Index, Close, EUR	⭐
France, Business Surveys, Bank of France, Industry, Change in Overall Level of New Orders, Manufacturing Industry, SA	⭐
France, Equity Indices, Euronext Paris, CAC 40 Index, Price Return, Close, EUR	⭐
China, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Shipping, China Containerized Freight, Index	⭐
France, Business Surveys, DG ECFIN, Industrial Confidence Indicator, Total Sector, Monthly, Balance, SA	⭐
Germany, Business Surveys, Ifo, Business Survey, Services, Freight Transport by Road, Expectations regarding Demand/ Turnover, Balance, SA (X-13 ARIMA)	⭐
Euro Area, Leading Indicators, ECB, Indicator of Systemic Stress, Composite Index, Index	⭐
France, Business Surveys, S&P Global, Composite, Composite PMI Output Index, SA, Index	⭐
France, Business Surveys, S&P Global, Manufacturing, Manufacturing PMI, SA, Index	⭐
France, Consumer Surveys, INSEE, Consumer Confidence Indicator, Synthetic Index, SA, Index	⭐
Germany, Business Surveys, DG ECFIN, Industrial Confidence Indicator, Total Sector, Monthly, Balance, SA	⭐
Germany, Business Surveys, Ifo, Business Survey, Trade, Expectations with Regard to Employees in the Next 3 Months, Balance	⭐
Germany, Business Surveys, S&P Global, Composite, Composite PMI Output Index, SA, Index	⭐
Germany, Business Surveys, S&P Global, Manufacturing, Manufacturing PMI, SA, Index	⭐
Germany, Consumer Surveys, DG ECFIN, Consumer Confidence, Balance, SA	⭐
Germany, Leading Indicators, Central Bank of Germany, Weekly Activity Index (WAI), Index	⭐
Germany, Truck Toll Mileage Index, Total, Calendar Adjusted (X13 JDemetra+), SA (X13 JDemetra+), Index	⭐
Spain, Business Surveys, DG ECFIN, Industrial Confidence Indicator, Total Sector, Monthly, Balance, SA	⭐
Spain, Business Surveys, S&P Global, Manufacturing, Manufacturing PMI, SA, Index	⭐
Spain, Consumer Surveys, Ministry of Economy & Business, Consumer Confidence Indicator, Total, SA	⭐

Top indicators identified

Spain, Government Benchmarks, Bank of Spain, 3 Year, Yield

The 3-Year Yield represents the yield on Spanish government bonds with a maturity of three years, as tracked by the Bank of Spain. The yield reflects the return investors can expect from holding the bond until maturity, expressed as a percentage. It is a key indicator of the cost of borrowing for the Spanish government over a short-term horizon and is influenced by factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and investor demand. This data provides insights into Spain's financial stability and the broader bond market environment.

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Germany, Government Benchmarks, Macrobond, 3 Month, Yield

The 3-Month Yield represents the yield on German government securities with a maturity of three months. This yield indicates the return investors can expect from holding short-term government debt until maturity, expressed as a percentage. It is a key indicator of short-term borrowing costs for the German government and is closely influenced by monetary policy, market interest rates, and economic conditions. This data provides insights into short-term investor sentiment and the overall financial health of Germany's economy.

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France, Yield Curve, CNO-TEC, 3 Year, Yield

The 3-Year Yield refers to the yield on French government bonds with a 3-year maturity, as part of the Constant Maturity Treasury (CNO-TEC) yield curve. The yield indicates the expected return on these bonds if held until maturity, expressed as a percentage. It is a key measure of short-term borrowing costs for the French government and reflects market conditions, including interest rates, inflation expectations, and investor sentiment. This yield data helps analyze the shape of France's yield curve and the country's economic outlook.

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