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Commodities

Key drivers forecasting PVC prices

PVC, or polyvinyl chloride, is a commonly used thermoplastic polymer. Forecasting its prices requires an understanding of various factors that drive its market dynamics.

Some examples are the cost of raw materials, like
ethylene and chlorine, the demand for PVC products or supply disruptions, and fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices.

< 2 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

25+

Relevant
leading
indicators

92%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
Polyvinyl Chloride (Poly Vinyl Chloride) Suspension USA Fas Houston United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne
Indicator name Influence
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma ⭐⭐⭐⭐
China, Futures, DCE-Polyvinyl Chloride Continuous ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Polyvinyl Chloride (Poly Vinyl Chloride) Suspension Cost and Freight Far East Asia United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne ⭐⭐⭐⭐
FTSE Canada Chemicals ⭐⭐⭐
FTSE Belgium/Luxembourg Chemicals ⭐⭐⭐
United States, Exports - Computers, Peripherals and Semiconductors (Census), SA, USD ⭐⭐
United States, Production, Aggregates, Non-Energy, Computers, Communications EQ, and Semiconductors, Volume, SA, Index
MSCI All Country World Index Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment United States Dollar
Google trends: US - Volvo Construction Equipment
United States - Manufacturing PMI ⭐⭐

Top indicators identified

Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma

PVC is derived from petrochemicals, and its production heavily relies on the availability and cost of crude oil and its derivatives. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is one of the most widely used benchmarks for crude oil prices in the United States. Changes in WTI crude oil prices can significantly impact the cost of PVC production, as it is an essential raw material in the process.

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China, Futures, DCE-Polyvinyl Chloride Continuous

Futures contracts, such as the DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange) PVC Continuous contract in China, are actively traded financial instruments that reflect market participants' expectations of future PVC prices. These contracts are based on the supply and demand dynamics in the PVC market, incorporating factors like production, consumption, and external influences.

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Polyvinyl Chloride (Poly Vinyl Chloride) Suspension Cost and Freight Far East Asia United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne

This variable provides a direct and specific price point for PVC in the form of cost and freight (C&F) rates from Far East Asia to the United States, denominated in U.S. dollars per metric tonne. As such, it represents the actual market price of PVC in a particular trade route, making it an immediate reference for PVC pricing.

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Use cases

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Plan production more effectively

Indicio provides you with a clearer understanding of your future demand by identifying your relevant market drivers, to ensure you successfully plan your production more effectively and avoid overproduction or underproduction.

Optimize production by improving forecast accuracy

Construction machinery typically has long product lifecycles, making accurate forecasting essential for planning production and inventory management. By improving forecasting accuracy, manufacturers can better anticipate market demand for specific machinery types, plan for product updates or replacements, and avoid excessive inventory of outdated models.

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Alexander Norén

Head of Analysis at Skanska
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