Commodities

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Commodities

Key drivers forecasting aluminum prices

Aluminum prices are influenced by factors extending beyond industry fundamentals, encompassing broader market conditions, investor sentiment,¯ economic trends.

Using the Indicio methodology, we've uncovered the most relevant leading indicators driving the prices.

< 3 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

20+

Relevant
leading
indicators

97%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

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Here are the leading indicators identified in Indicio:

Indicator name Influence
United States, Manufacturers New Orders, Durable Goods, Aluminium and Nonferrous Metals ⭐⭐⭐
China, Production, by Commodity, Aluminium Products, Growth Rate, Cumulative, Change y/y ⭐⭐
Aluminium-Stocks London Metal Exchange (LME) in Warehouses-Metric Tonne ⭐⭐
Bloomberg Aluminum 3 Month Forward Excess Return
European Energy Exchange(EEX) - Phelix Base Hour 01-24 Euro/Megawatt Hour
London Metal Exchange (LME)-Aluminium 99.7% 3 Months United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne
Google trends: aluminium price
Nordpool ASA Elspot Base Fixing System Price - Average in Norwegian Krone
Amsterdam Power Exchange(APX) Electricity Netherlands Average All Hours
London Metal Exchange (LME)-North American Special Aluminium Alloy Short Ton Louis Warehouse Stocks
London Metal Exchange (LME)-North American Special Aluminium Alloy Chicago Warehouse Stocks
London Metal Exchange (LME)-Aluminium Baltimore Warehouse
London Metal Exchange (LME)-North American Special Aluminium Alloy Baltimore Warehouse Stocks
London Metal Exchange (LME)-Aluminium Bilbao Warehouse Stocks
Georgia, Exports, Commodities, Aluminium Waste and Scrap, USD
London Metal Exchange (LME)-Aluminium Alloy Genoa Warehouse

Top indicators identified

United States, Manufacturers New Orders, Durable Goods, Aluminium and Nonferrous Metals, Current Prices, SA, USD

When manufacturers place new orders for aluminum,
it suggests an anticipated increase in their production activities, which typically requires a sufficient supply of raw materials like aluminum.

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China, Production, by Commodity, Aluminium Products, Growth Rate, Cumulative, Change y/y

This reflects shifts in the demand-supply balance. Higher production growth rates indicate increased output, outpacing domestic demand. This could result in excess supply in the market, leading to lower prices.

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Aluminium-Stocks London Metal Exchange (LME) in Warehouses-Metric Tonne

The level of aluminum stocks in LME warehouses reflects the physical inventory available for delivery.

Monitoring these stocks helps assess the availability of aluminum in the market & potential impact on prices.

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What our customers say

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Indicio advances our digital strategy of becoming a data-driven organization, producing
accurate forecasts in a fraction of time.

Alexander Noren, a customer that used Indicio

Alexander Norén

Head of Analysis
Skanska

Indicio tells us how our market
will evolve 'without emotions' which aligns everyone from management to production.

Steven Van Poecke, Toyota, customer of Indicio.

Steven Van Poecke

Market Intelligence
Toyota Material Handling Europe

Instrumental in helping us achieve higher efficiency in a
short period of time.

Anders Nordberg, LF Bank, customer of Indicio.

Anders Nordberg

Head of Macro
LF Bank
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Case

Forecasting aluminum prices, leveraging statistical forecasting & leading indicators

Taking a data-driven approach, this case explores the value of applying statistical forecasting to optimize accuracy.

Learn more about the methodology driving aluminium prices.

Download the full report