Home / Indicio One
Indicio OneHow Indicio One works
Indicio finds the leading indicators behind your demand, tests more than 80 models on your history, and reconciles operational, tactical and strategic forecasts into one number in your planning tool. Each of the three modules is also sold on its own.
Why your plans disagree, and what we do about it.
Supply chain plans the next weeks, sales the next one to two years, finance the next five. Scroll to see three forecasts become one number.
Three forecasts, three owners
Each forecast is built by a different team, from different data, in different time buckets. Each makes sense on its own.
- Operational forecast, owned by supply chain. Weeks, SKU and site, made in the ERP or planning tool from orders, backlog and history. Right for the next weeks, blind beyond.
- Tactical forecast, owned by sales and S&OP. Rolling 12 to 24 months by product group, made in S&OP, often in Excel. Rebuilt every month, rarely checked against what happened.
- Strategic forecast, owned by finance and management. 2 to 5 years by market, for budget and investment. Often no tool, no backtest and no link to the other two.
Side by side, they disagree
Supply chain's weeks don't add up to sales' months. Sales' months don't add up to finance's year. S&OP turns into a negotiation over whose number wins.
What it costs: capacity and purchasing are committed on last year's numbers. When the market turns, the first warning is the order book, and by then it is too late to act.
Indicio adds what planning tools miss
Indicio finds the leading indicators of your demand and tests 80+ models on your history. Indicio searches over 400 million economic and market series for the leading indicators of your demand, and tests 80+ statistical and machine-learning models on your history. The best are combined into the tactical and strategic forecasts. Planning tools stop at the operational horizon, so that forecast stays where it is.
Reconciled into one number
Indicio One takes the forecasts you have and blends them, weighting each by how accurate it has been at its own level. Choose which forecasts go in:
All three horizons reconciled into one number.
Split it any way. It still adds up.
Each product group has its own weekly, monthly and yearly forecasts. They are reconciled together with the total, so the groups sum to it in every week, month and year.
- Service
- Spare parts
- Machines
“No matter how you split or join forecasts together, they still agree.”Nikolaos Kourentzes, Foresight, 2022
Top-down, bottom-up, or both
Finance sees the market slowing. Supply chain knows about a promotion on product B. Top-down keeps the first, bottom-up keeps the second. Reconciliation keeps both, and everything still adds up.
- Forecast every levelLeading indicators where the market decides, history and orders where the short term decides.
- Weight by track recordLevels that have forecast more accurately get more say.
- Make it add upProducts sum to groups and groups to the total, in every week, month and year.
“No matter how you split or join forecasts together, they still agree.” Nikolaos Kourentzes, Foresight, 2022. Illustrative units, reconciled by weighted least squares. The method
A small dip in the market becomes a big swing in your plan
Every step in a supply chain forecasts from the orders of the step below, then adds its own safety stock and batching. The further upstream you are, the bigger the swings. This is the bullwhip effect, and it is why capacity and purchasing get committed on numbers that have already turned.
Indicio forecasts the end market directly, from leading indicators, so you see the real signal months before it reaches your order book.
Every number comes with its reasons
A forecast nobody can explain gets overruled in the first meeting. Indicio shows which indicators moved each forecast, and by how much, in numbers and in plain words.
- Trust: planners use forecasts they understand. Black boxes get overruled.
- Challenge: test the sales input and the management targets against data, in S&OP.
- Horizon by horizon: your own orders drive next quarter, the market drives next year.
- Traceable: every number can be traced to its drivers and the models behind it.
Works with the planning tool you already have
Indicio One doesn't replace your ERP or planning system. It reads the data you already have, adds the outside view, and sends one reconciled forecast back, in the format and at the level of detail your tool already uses.
In
Sales history, order intake and the operational forecast.
Today's 12-month forecast, sales estimates and surveys, used as model inputs.
Over 400 million series from the world's leading data providers.
- Forecast each horizon with leading indicators
- Reconcile across weeks, months and years, and across products and markets
- Explain which drivers moved the number
Out
The reconciled forecast, ready for MRP, S&OP and budgeting.
Forecasts, drivers and scenarios for management dashboards.
Files on a schedule, or through the API into data warehouses and in-house tools.
- Read historyfrom your planning tool
- Forecast in Indiciotactical and strategic, with leading indicators
- Write backthe reconciled forecast to the tool
- Planners reviewin the screens they already use
Connector
Ready integrations with planning platforms, delivered with our partners. Forecasts flow in and out without manual steps.
API
For any ERP, planning tool or data warehouse that can exchange data through an API. Your IT team or ours sets it up once.
File exchange
Excel or CSV files on a fixed schedule. The quickest way to start, with no integration project.
No remapping. The reconciled forecast is delivered at the level your tool already plans on: SKU, product group or market, by week, month or year. Not sure how your tool fits? We check it in the first call.
Proven with customers, and in peer-reviewed research
“Indicio gives us confidence in our market forecast and makes it easier to make decisions for the management team about the goals we need to achieve.”
Steven Van PoeckeDirector of Business and Market Intelligence, Toyota Material Handling
Read the Toyota caseSagaert & Kourentzes (2025), Omega 136. Leading indicators at the top of the hierarchy vs a history-only forecast at SKU level.
Start with one module. Prove it on your data in four weeks.
- 130-minute callThe setup on a case like yours
- 21-hour workshopYour drivers and data agreed
- 34-week backtestOur number next to yours
- 4Subscribe only if ours is betterThen add modules when you are ready