Forecasting with leading indicators

No single model tells the whole story. How combining many good models, tested honestly, gives forecasts you can trust, with their uncertainty in view.

How scenario analysis improves business forecasting and strategic planning. Covers simulation-based scenarios, probability distributions, stress testing, and avoiding hum

Learn how variable selection improves forecasting accuracy. Covers LASSO, Bayesian model averaging, stepwise methods, leading indicators, and automated software approache

Adding more indicators to a forecast feels like progress. It usually isn't. A model leaning on two or three strong signals will often outperform one stuffed with twenty m

Geopolitical shocks are no longer background noise for planners. When maritime trade stalls, energy prices spike, and supply chains tighten overnight, slow forecasting st

The biggest barrier to AI adoption in planning isn't the math—it's the trust. If a "black box" model tells a planner to double their inventory without explaining why, tha

What do you do when one leading indicator says demand is rising and another says a slowdown is coming? Mixed signals are one of the most common challenges in forecasting,

Traditional demand sensing often fails because it lacks transparency, leaving leaders to guess why a forecast changed. Next-generation demand sensing solves this by provi

Forecast accuracy is not just about picking the right model. It is also about configuring the process around that model. In this post, we break down the Indicio settings

Is your data-heavy model actually sabotaging your results? In the world of forecasting, 'more' is rarely 'better.' Discover how cutting-edge variable selection methods li

In the high-stakes economy of 2026, more data often leads to worse forecasts. The secret isn't more information, it's better selection. We dive into Lasso Penalization an

In data-rich environments, automated variable selection has evolved from a luxury to a core capability. This guide explores how leading brands manage high-dimensional pre

In economic forecasting, "more data" usually leads to "more noise." This guide breaks down the best tools for variable selection, from open-source Python libraries to aut

In today’s volatile business environment, static forecasting is no longer enough. As highlighted in BCG’s 2025 Strategic Foresight report, leaders must combine analytics,

In volatile markets, enterprise teams need forecasting tools that go beyond historical trends. This 2025 ranking highlights the top 10 platforms based on their ability to

Indicio leads our list of DataRobot alternatives for forecasting, thanks to automation, no code workflows, a large model library, ensemble weighting, scenario analysis, a

In an era of rapid market shifts and deep uncertainty, forecasting professionals need more than just one static projection – they need a platform capable of modelling mul

Most teams treat a forecast like a single answer. Then the world changes and the plan breaks. Scenario analysis gives you a faster, safer way to plan: model a few plausib

Euro area inflation has eased below 2%, but the forces underneath are getting louder. At Indicio, we built a 5 month Euro Area HICP forecast that goes beyond past inflati

Nonfarm payrolls move markets, but planners cannot wait for the monthly print. The labor market shifts week by week through layoffs, consumer demand, liquidity, and real

Trump talked tough on tariffs - then backed down. But if you’re in planning, forecasting, or pricing, the story isn’t over. A 10% tariff isn’t just a headline; it’s a cos

Europe’s construction equipment market is entering a new phase where structural growth meets cyclical uncertainty. This article explains how Indicio uses Eurostat, DG ECF

Most planning tools compare fixed cases, but boards want probabilities. This guide explains why simulation based scenario planning, grounded in Waggoner and Zha’s conditi

Long-term planning demands year-one accuracy, scenario simulation, explainable drivers, and hierarchical reconciliation. Here are the five forecasting platforms that do i

Most forecasting teams have only a few hundred observations, so small sample friendly models, ensembles and governance matter more than generic deep learning. Here are th

Variable selection makes or breaks forecast accuracy. Correlation screens invite spurious relationships and miss group effects. Indicio combines Bayesian variable selecti

Generic AI platforms treat forecasting as a tabular problem with lag features, which often fails on short time series. Neural networks, LSTMs, and XGBoost can capture ric

Evaluating replacements for EViews, this guide ranks the five best alternatives for forecasting teams. Indicio tops the list with automation, variable selection, scenario

Copying a model from a paper rarely maximizes accuracy for your data. Decades of evidence, from Bates and Granger to the M4 competition, shows that no single method domin

Economic forecasting accuracy hinges on three levers, selecting the right predictors, testing a broad set of econometric, time-series, and machine-learning models, and co

Variable selection has moved from eyeballing lagged plots to principled shrinkage and Bayesian inclusion, and when drivers and targets co-move, from exogenous regressions

Accurate commodity forecasting has never been more critical, or more challenging. With markets shaped by volatile demand, geopolitical shocks, and macroeconomic uncertain

Demand planning in today’s volatile markets requires more than just looking at sales history. Traditional tools that only use internal data leave planners blind to econom

Econometric forecasting is evolving fast, with new software making it easier than ever to combine traditional models, machine learning, and big data sources. From no-code

In today’s volatile economy, demand forecasting is harder than ever. Traditional models based on historical data often collapse when faced with disruptions like recession

In many manufacturing industries, there is often the presence of inertia. ‍What's the impact of this?

Have you ever wanted to lift the veil off your forecasting “black box” and be able to say with some level of certainty, “here we go, these are the market drivers that hav

Forecasting can be challenging. Why open yourself up to limitations and risks by relying solely on manual forecasting techniques?

As businesses face increasing competition and changing market conditions, accurate forecasting has become an essential tool for success.

Are you having trouble identifying the relevant leading indicators or KPIs? Here are some of the key leading indicators worth integrating to generate your forecasts.

A company could achieve high forecast accuracy numbers just a decade ago, leveraging only internal data. However, at the speed at which the market and economy are changin

A myriad of factors can decrease the accuracy of forecasts, one of them being the timeliness of the data used in the forecast. Businesses often rely on the data provided

Finding what affects your markets is an arduous task. At Indicio, we have had discussions throughout the years with many industrial forecasters, supply chain managers, st

Our previous article established that identifying your leading indicators is key to ensuring that you do not miss out on market trend shifts when they happen.