Building vs Buying a forecasting platform

When considering the adoption of a forecasting platform, many organizations weigh the options of building a custom solution in-house versus purchasing a ready-made platform.

Before you embark on that, consider these points.

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Buying vs Building a forecasting tool

#1 How well can the platform adapt to market dynamics

The market is not static; this necessitates a periodic re-evaluation of your forecasting models and leading indicators over time. Reusing the same indicators without reassessing them can be akin to charging forward with horse-blinders. It’s key to identify and test out new leading indicators. By incorporating new data as it becomes available, you can play out its impact on your forecast. All this requires flexibility in the platform.

Build: Relying on a code-based solution forces you to update or rewrite the code when the market evolves. This would typically require quite a bit of time and resources. To compound that, your internal team might not have the same level of access to expertise or the time to stay updated on the latest developments in forecasting methodologies.

Buy: Indicio gives you access to a vast array of external data sources and databases, which can be crucial for identifying relevant leading indicators. The ability to tap into this extensive data network enables you to pull in real-time or up-to-date information, providing a more accurate and timely reflection of market conditions.

It’s a matter of adding in new indicators from our integrated data sources and testing them instantly. 

#2 How reliable is the platform?

Handling various types of data in a forecasting model (much less, multiple models!) presents challenges, and the reliability and robustness of the forecasting platform play crucial roles in managing these complexities effectively. ‍

Build: Handling various types of data across multiple models requires robust error handling and data validation mechanisms. This is where a custom in-built platform might be more prone to errors and issues.There is a layer of integration complexity to consider; Handling different types of data often requires integrating with multiple systems and platforms. This can be a complex task, potentially leading to integration issues, data silos, or inconsistencies in an in-house solution.

Buy: We have implemented over 2,000 improvements in our platform and integrated third-party open-source packages. What does this mean in practice for your team?

- Having the ability to handle diverse data types (e.g., time series, cross-sectional, panel data) ensures that the model can leverage all available information for more accurate predictions.

- The implemented improvements for handling data ensures that it can be transformed and cleaned in ways that enhance model performance. The improvements in data handling capabilities ensure that the system can scale to accommodate large datasets, which is crucial for big data applications.

- Having a single platform that can handle different data types and sources simplifies the data integration process and ensures that users experience better data integration.

#3 Does the platform factor in continuous improvement in forecasting research?

We take measures to ensure Indicio undergoes extensive testing and quality assurance processes to ensure they perform reliably across various scenarios and data types. This rigorous testing helps catch and address potential issues before the platform reaches the end user. Continuous improvement helps forecasting platforms to adapt to changing conditions and trends over time, ensuring that they remain relevant and accurate even as the world around them evolves.

Build: If your team decide to embark on building such a platform, depending on how it is designed, implemented, and updated, continuous improvement needs to be made through regular updates and refinements made by researchers and analysts.

This might involve incorporating new research findings, adjusting model parameters, or adding new data sources. In addition, building a comparable platform in-house would require substantial investment in R&D, not to mention the time needed to recruit a team with the necessary expertise in data science, software engineering, and domain-specific knowledge. All of this takes internal resources and time to ensure that you are using the most updated models. 

Buy: By opting to purchase a pre-built forecasting software, you leverage years of specialized development and optimization that have gone into creating a robust and reliable platform. Indicio comes with a suite of features that have been tested across diverse industries and scenarios, ensuring their accuracy and reliability. 

We continuously release new models and implement features based on the latest research to tackle our customers’ forecasting challenges, with the support of international professors in machine-learning and forecasting. This is based on discussions and feedback from our customers, and the latest strides made in the forecasting industry.

#4 How scalable is the platform in delivering optimal performance?

Forecasting models seldom run well in parallel. The capacity to handle these calculations without compromising on speed is crucial to both the user experience and performance.

Build: Some of the challenges faced with building a scalable and high-performance forecasting platform necessitates meticulous attention to data management, computational resources, and software efficiency. They include handling diverse and voluminous data efficiently, and optimizing complex forecasting models.

Buy: Indicio’s data center runs on 5Ghz processors, making the generated analysis available at the quickest response. We are diligent with running frequent tests to ensure that the platform is optimized.

#5 How much time does it take to implement a forecasting system?

The urgency of implementation is a critical factor. 

Build: Developing a robust forecasting platform requires substantial time investment in research, design, coding, testing, and deployment. Companies need to allocate skilled developers, data scientists, and domain experts to work on the project, which could take months or even years, depending on the complexity of the platform and the accuracy required.

With longer development cycles, it can result in missed opportunities, as the company might lag behind competitors who are quicker to adopt or implement existing advanced forecasting solutions. Given the dynamic nature of the business environment, a prolonged implementation time means that by the time the in-house platform is ready for deployment, the initial requirements may no longer be relevant or the platform might be outdated. 

Buy: Purchasing a ready-made platform ensures quick implementation, enabling organizations to leverage forecasting capabilities in a shorter time frame, which is crucial in a fast-paced business environment. It typically takes only a few days to get Indicio users up and forecasting like a pro in Indicio.

This means reaping the benefits of accurate and efficient forecasting, which in turn promptly contributes to improved decision-making, resource allocation, and strategic planning. Given that Indicio has been tested extensively and used by multiple customers, this means that we’ve been on top of identifying any potential issues, and this ensures that there are no unanticipated complexities, all of which can extend the implementation time.

#6 What is the real cost of building vs buying - in both the short- and long-term?

Build: Building an internal platform has a high initial high cost, and the maintenance cost is hard to forecast. You’d come closer to an informed decision by considering the impact on your resources - in both the short- and long term.The time and effort spent by employees on building the in-house platform could have been directed towards other revenue-generating projects or strategic initiatives. In the short-term, this trade-off can lead to opportunity costs and a potential delay in realizing benefits from other potential investments.

Further down the line, the rapid pace of technological change necessitates regular updates and enhancements to keep the platform current and effective. The long-term cost of continuously updating the custom platform to keep up with advancements in forecasting methodologies, data processing capabilities, and security protocols can become a significant financial burden. Unpredictable costs due to potential development overruns, technical challenges, or scope changes, can also present themselves.

Buy: When depending on a forecasting platform, you want to ensure that the platform is in for the long haul. As part of the package, Indicio provides customer support and regular updates. This encompasses remaining up-to-date with the latest forecasting methodologies and security protocols without requiring additional costs or resource allocation from your organization.

Indicio has a transparent pricing model, which aids in budgeting and financial planning, as you can clearly understand and anticipate the costs associated. 

Most importantly, we scale with you. This means that as your organization grows or as your forecasting needs evolve, Indicio can adjust without necessitating a complete overhaul or significant additional investment. This is a stark contrast to in-house builds, which may require substantial resources to update or scale, resulting in unforeseen long-term costs.

(Placeholder quote) We've tried planning tools, but hated it.

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Customer Name

Co-Founder and CEO of Company

What's the difference?

Indicio

Traditional planning software

AI planning software

Scope of information that can be incorporated
Capable of incorporating a wide breadth of industry-specific and macroeconomic indicators.
Only incorporates general indicators like weather, seasonal patterns.
Only incorporates general indicators like weather, seasonal patterns.
Forecasting horizon
Can handle both short- and long-term forecasting horizons (Up to 10 years)
Only possible to forecast short-term forecasting horizons.
Only possible to forecast short-term forecasting horizons.
Scope of forecast models used
Univariate and multivariate models, such as Lasso, LSTM and MIDAS. They are also capable of comprehending complex interdependencies.
Solely based on or restricted to using univariate models.
They commonly use "black-box machine-learning models. This typically makes it hard to provide the reasoning behind the forecast results.
Identification of leading indicators accurately
Indicio is based on the latest forecasting research, where the best practice is to select the variables based on Bayesian variable selection or a search algorithm like stepwise search.

These approaches test which combination of variables gives the highest forecasting accuracy for a given model.
A model using the coefficient search method is typically used.

The limitation associated with this is that if you have a large number of leading indicators, this model will not perform as well and accurately.
A model using the coefficient search method is typically used.

The limitation associated with this is that if you have a large number of leading indicators, this model will not perform as well and accurately.
Access to market & economic data
Integrated with multiple, leading macroeconomic data sources like FRED, Refinitiv and Oxford Economics
Yes, some do.
Yes, some specific data sources, but the sources are not as dynamic.
Ease of use
User-friendly, code-free set-up. 
Total onboarding time is less than an hour.
Onboarding time is high as it requires more time to understand the dependencies between each module in the tool.

(Further down the line, there is also a hidden cost associated with having to purchase more modules to maximize usage.
User-friendly.
Capacity to forecast market growth
Yes.
Mainly focused on or centered around supply chain management, not so much market growth.
Mainly focused on or centered around supply chain management, not so much market growth.
Scenario analysis
Yes. Indicio also provides scenario simulation.
Yes, but it isn't as sophisticated, and thereby runs the risk of being less accurate.
Yes, but it isn't as sophisticated, and thereby runs the risk of being less accurate.
Feedback mechanism
Easily set up and track deviations between the projected forecast projections and specific manual inputs from stakeholders.

Option available to categorize the type of input (sales, expected demand) to provide clarity on the source of information.

Beneficial when your forecast is dependent on provided figures from different departments.
Able to track manual inputs.

However, they only provide the option to leave a comment on the input, not categorize it.
Able to track manual inputs.

However, they only provide the option to leave a comment on the input, not categorize it.
Integrations
Indicio guarantees to integrate all of your current data sources.
Often requires external consultants to get integrations set up.
Often requires external consultants to get integrations set up.

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