Forecasting the constrained demand for semiconductors

Forecasting the capacity utilization for semiconductors requires analyzing a blend of factors, such as the import of Semiconductors, retail sales of electronics, and financial indicators such as Intel and NXP stock price and S&P 400 Semiconductors.

< 2 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

25+

Relevant
leading
indicators

92%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
United States, Capacity Utilization, Computers, Communications EQ, and Semiconductors Total, SA
Indicator name Influence
United States, Imports - Computers, Peripherals and Semiconductors (Census), SA, USD ⭐⭐⭐
Intel stock price ⭐⭐⭐
United States, Retail Sales, Electronics and Appliance Stores, Current Prices, SA, USD ⭐⭐
Standard and Poor's 400 Semiconductors ⭐⭐
NXP Semiconductors ⭐⭐
United States, Exports - Computers, Peripherals and Semiconductors (Census), SA, USD ⭐⭐
United States, Production, Aggregates, Non-Energy, Computers, Communications EQ, and Semiconductors, Volume, SA, Index
MSCI All Country World Index Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment United States Dollar
Google trends: US - Volvo Construction Equipment
United States - Manufacturing PMI ⭐⭐

Top indicators identified

United States, Imports - Computers, Peripherals and Semiconductors (Census), SA, USD

The volume of imports can serve as a direct indication of the domestic demand. If the U.S. is importing more computers, peripherals, & semiconductors, it suggests a rising demand for them within the country.

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Intel stock price

While Intel's stock price offers valuable insights into the semiconductor industry's trends and potential demand shifts, it should not be used in isolation. Forecasting semiconductor demand would require analyzing a combination of factors, with stock prices being just one of many variables to consider.

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United States, Retail Sales, Electronics and Appliance Stores, Current Prices, SA, USD

This reflects consumer spending & demand for these products. As semiconductors are key components in many electronic devices and appliances, a surge in retail sales can be indicative of a surge in demand.

How we can help you
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Hoofd van Macro
LF Bank
LF bank
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Hoofd van de analyse
Skanska
Skanska
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