Forecasting Coconut Oil Prices

Coconut oil prices are shaped by a diverse set of interrelated factors. Key influences include the closing stock price of Borneo Oil, fluctuations in Indonesian cooking oil prices, and movements in the Soybeans Index, all of which serve as indicators of supply dynamics, substitution effects, and broader market sentiment.

< 1 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

30+

# of leading
indicators tested

96%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
Coconut Oil, 1 Month Cost, Insurance and Freight North West Europe United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne
Indicator name Influence
Malaysia, Borneo Oil Ord Shs, Close, MYR ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Indonesia, Food Prices, Traditional Market, National, Cooking Oil, IDR ⭐⭐⭐
World, Commodity Indices, S&P GSCI, Soybeans Index, Total Return, Close, USD ⭐⭐
Malaysia, Sarawak Oil Palms Ord Shs, Close, MYR
Indonesia, Palm Oil (Unrefined), CPO, Spot Prices, Medan, IDR
Malaysia, FX Spot Rates, Macrobond, MYR per USD
China, Foreign Trade, Import, HS, Animal & Vegetable Oils, Fats & Waxes, Total, USD
Malaysia, Agricultural Production, Production, Crude Palm Oil
Malaysia, Agricultural Production, Production, Palm Kernel
Malaysia, Negri Sembilan Oil Palms Ord Shs, Close, MYR
Malaysia, Palm Oil, Stock Level, Ending Stocks
Philippine Peso to United States Dollar

Top indicators identified

Malaysia, Borneo Oil Ord Shs, Close, MYR

This variable represents the daily closing share price of Borneo Oil Berhad, quoted in Malaysian ringgit (MYR). As an integrated player in the edible oils sector, the company’s stock performance can serve as a proxy for market expectations around production, demand, and pricing trends in related commodities, including coconut oil.

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Indonesia, Food Prices, Traditional Market, National, Cooking Oil, IDR

This variable reflects the average retail price of cooking oil, measured in Indonesian rupiah (IDR), across traditional markets nationwide. This indicator captures consumer-level price dynamics, offering insights into domestic demand, household affordability, and potential substitution effects with other edible oils such as coconut and palm oil.

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World, Commodity Indices, S&P GSCI, Soybeans Index, Total Return, Close, USD

This variable measures the performance of soybean futures within the S&P GSCI framework, expressed in U.S. dollars (USD). The index reflects both price movements and the returns from rolling futures positions, making it a comprehensive benchmark for soybean market dynamics. As a key edible oilseed, movements in the Soybeans Index influence global vegetable oil markets and act as an important driver for substitution trends affecting coconut and palm oil prices.

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