Forecasting Caustic Soda stock level

Forecasting Caustic Soda Stock volumes hinges on a multitude of factors. Key among these are industrial demand, influenced by the health of sectors like paper, aluminum, and textiles, and the overall global economic conditions, which affect industrial production levels. Energy prices are crucial, given the energy-intensive nature of caustic soda production, with higher energy costs potentially leading to reduced supply.

< 1 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

50+

# of leading
indicators tested

96%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
Caustic soda stocks (tonnes), Europe
Indicator name Influence
Eurostat, EU, Imports, Imports From Extra EU27 ex GB - Energy, Euro ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Industry Survey, Chemicals and Chemical Products, Order Books, EU, Balance, SA ⭐⭐⭐
MFG - INDUSTRIAL CONFIDENCE INDICATOR ⭐⭐
United States, Business Surveys, Philadelphia Federal, Future Capital Expenditures, SA, Index
Retail Trade Survey, Sale of Motor Vehicles EU
Europe Brent Spot Price Free on Board (Dollars Per Barrel) Daily
Crude Oil Brent price
Petroleum Stocks Oecd Europe Million Barrels / Day
China container exports
MSCI Europe Paper and Forestry Products USD
Cleaning equipment - EU, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices
Shanghai (Export) Containerized Freight Composite Index (Scfi)
World, World Price, Gas, Europe, USD
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION - EU
Chlorine production
Euro area - Manufacturing PMI
Business tendency surveys (retail trade): Confidence indicators: Composite indicators: National indicator for the Euro Area
Industrial survey total manufacturing EU
GDP EU 27
EU, Industry Survey, Total Manufacturing, Stocks of Finished Products

Top indicators identified

Industry Survey, Chemicals and Chemical Products, Order Books, EU, Balance, SA

This variable reflects the order book situation in the EU chemicals and chemical products industry. healthy order book balance, indicating more orders, suggests strong demand within the chemical industry, which can directly impact the demand for caustic soda, a key industrial chemical.

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Eurostat, EU, Imports, Imports From Extra EU27 ex GB - Energy, Euro

his variable tracks the value of energy imports into the EU from countries outside the EU27, excluding Great Britain. Energy costs are a significant component of the production expenses in the chemical industry, including the manufacture of caustic soda. Higher energy import costs can lead to increased production costs for caustic soda, potentially affecting its supply and pricing.

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MFG - INDUSTRIAL CONFIDENCE INDICATOR

Building permits are a leading indicator of future construction activity. They represent the number of permits issued for new construction projects and are typically granted before construction begins. A high number of building permits indicates that more construction is planned, which usually translates into an increase in future home availability.

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