Leading indicators identified with Indicio
Forecasted variable: United States, Business Surveys, ISM, Report on Business, Manufacturing, Purchasing Managers', SA, Index
| Indicator | Relevance |
|---|---|
| United States, Leading Indicators, ECB, New Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS), Index | ★★★★ |
| United States, Crude Oil, Brent Europe Spot Price FOB, USD | ★★★ |
| United States, Leading Indicators, Citi, Economic Surprise Index, Index | ★★ |
| United States, Interbank Rates, LIBOR, 6 Month, Fixing | ★ |
| United States, Volatility Indices, CBOE, S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), Close | ★ |
| United States, Swap Rates, USD, 2 Year, Mid | ★ |
| United States, Equity Indices, S&P, 500, Index, Price Return, Close, USD | ★ |
| United States, Equity Indices, S&P, 500, Index (Shiller), Excess CAPE, Yield | ★ |
| United States, Leading Indicators, Office of Financial Research (OFR), Financial Stress Index, OFR FSI, Index | ★ |
| United States, Investor Surveys, AAII, Sentiment Survey, Bull-Bear Spread | ★ |
| United States, Balance Sheet & Flows of MFI Sector, Federal Reserve Banks, Liabilities & Capital, Total, Total Liabilities, Middle of Period, USD | ★ |
| United States, EIA, Oil & Gas, Refineries, Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity | ★ |
| United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 1 Month, Yield | ★ |
| United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 6 Month, Yield | ★ |
| United States, Traffic, Rail, Intermodal Units Originated, Total | ★ |
| United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 7 Year, Yield | ★ |
| United States, Balance Sheet & Flows of MFI Sector, Commercial Banks, Assets, Bank Credit, Loans & Leases in Bank Credit, Real Estate, Residential, Total, SA, USD | ★ |
| United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 10 Year, Yield | ★ |
Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators; the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
Top indicators identified
United States, Leading Indicators, ECB, New Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS), Index
Measures systemic financial stress in the US by combining market measures such as volatility, liquidity and correlations across sectors. Higher readings signal greater risk of instability. Developed by the ECB.
United States, Crude Oil, Brent Europe Spot Price FOB, USD
A major global crude oil benchmark priced in US dollars per barrel, free on board at the European loading point (excluding shipping and insurance). It reflects supply, demand and geopolitical conditions.
United States, Leading Indicators, Citi, Economic Surprise Index, Index
Tracks how recent US economic releases compare with forecasts. Positive values mean data has on average beaten expectations; negative values mean it has fallen short.
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