New30 Oct 2026When the Forecast Becomes the Target: How to Keep Your Numbers Honest
Indicio

Home / Forecast templates

Forecast template

Nowcasting the US inflation

Nowcasting US inflation requires combining a blend of high-frequency indicators such as energy, gasoline, electricity, transport, food and lumber prices, which give insight into where overall prices are heading.

95,2%
Accuracy
14+
Leading indicators
Migration draft. Headings, figures and names are taken from the current page. The body text is a draft and will be replaced with the original wording when the content is imported from the CMS.

Leading indicators identified with Indicio

Forecasted variable: United States, Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers, U.S. City Average, All Items, SA, Change Y/Y

IndicatorRelevance
United States, Commodities & Energy Prices, Retail Fuel Prices, Gasoline, Regular, All Formulations, Average Price, USD★★★★
United States, Beef, Select Carcass Value, USD★★★
United States, Oil & Gas, Rig Counts, By Basin, Total US Rig Count, Gas★★
United States, Traffic, Rail, Intermodal Units Originated, Total★
United States, Real Estate Indicators, Mortgage Applications, Market Composites, Purchase Index, MBA, Calendar Adjusted, SA, Index, MBA★
United States, Consumer Surveys, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, Inflation Expectations, Median 1-Year Ahead, SA★
United States, Mortgage Lending Rates, MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, MBA, Jumbo, 30-Year, Total Points★
United States, Traffic, Rail, Intermodal Units Originated, Total★
United States, Real Estate Prices, Home Value Index, All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op), United States, SA, USD, Zillow, Residential, Prices★
United States, Wheat, No. 1 Hard Winter, Kansas City, Close, USD★
United States, Lumber, Spruce-Pine Fir 2x4, Close, USD★
United States, Real Estate Indicators, Mortgage Applications, Market Composites, ARM Index, MBA, Calendar Adjusted, SA★
United States, Real Estate Indicators, Mortgage Applications, Market Composites, Market Index, MBA, Index, MBA★
United States, Electricity, New York City, USD★
United States, Equity Indices, S&P, 500, Index, Price Return, Close, USD★

Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators; the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.

Top indicators identified

United States, Commodities & Energy Prices, Retail Fuel Prices, Gasoline, Regular, All Formulations, Average Price, USD

Tracks the average US pump price of regular gasoline across all formulations, in dollars per gallon, as a gauge of fuel costs and energy market trends.

United States, Beef, Select Carcass Value, USD

Tracks the wholesale market price of USDA Select-grade beef carcasses, reflecting beef supply and demand and influencing pricing for producers, retailers and consumers.

United States, Oil & Gas, Rig Counts, By Basin, Total US Rig Count, Gas

Counts active US rigs drilling for natural gas, broken down by basin, as a measure of oil and gas exploration and production activity.

“Indicio has continuously improved our forecasts and added features that automate and support our business process.”
Steven Van Poecke · Head of Marketing Intelligence, Toyota Material Handling

Explore our forecasts

We cover major economic indicators from GDP to PMI, with unmatched accuracy

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls
  • Economic sentiment indicator
  • US Inflation
  • GDP Germany
  • US PMI
  • EA Inflation
  • US New Home Sales

Related

Go deeper

Or go straight to it: we put our number next to yours on your own data in four weeks, and you subscribe only if ours is better.

Book a demo
Book a demo