Leading indicators identified with Indicio
Forecasted variable: Germany, Gross Domestic Product, Total, Calendar Adjusted (X13 JDemetra+), Constant Prices, SA (X13 JDemetra+), Chained, Index
| Indicator | Relevance |
|---|---|
| Germany, Business Surveys, Ifo, Business Survey, Manufacturing Industry, Total, Expectations the Next 6 Months, Balance, SA | ★★★★ |
| Germany, Leading Indicators, Central Bank of Germany, Weekly Activity Index (WAI), Index | ★★★ |
| Germany, Economic Surveys, ZEW, Financial Market Report, Economic Expectations, Balance | ★★ |
| Germany, Business Surveys, Ifo, Business Survey, Trade, Assessment of the Business Situation, Balance, SA (X-13 ARIMA) | ★ |
| Germany, Domestic Trade, Wholesale Trade, Turnover, Consumption-Related Trade, Trend Adjusted (BV4.1), Current Prices, Index | ★ |
| Germany, Construction Finances, Total, Residential Buildings, Permitted, EUR | ★ |
| Germany, Consumer Surveys, GfK, Consumer Climate, Consumer Climate Indicator | ★ |
| Germany, DG ECFIN, Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, Except of Motor Vehicles & Motorcycles, Past 3 Months | ★ |
| Germany, Foreign Trade, Total, Export, Calendar Adjusted (X13 JDemetra+), SA (X13 JDemetra+), EUR | ★ |
| Germany, Baden-Württemberg, Labor Turnover, Unfilled Vacancies, By State, Total, SA | ★ |
| Germany, Consumer Price Index, Total, Index | ★ |
| Germany, Labor Turnover, Unfilled Vacancies, Total, Calendar Adjusted, SA | ★ |
| Germany, Foreign Trade, Total, Trade Balance, Calendar Adjusted (X13 JDemetra+), SA (X13 JDemetra+), EUR | ★ |
| Germany, Economic Surveys, DG ECFIN, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Balance, SA, Index | ★ |
| Germany, Economic Surveys, DG ECFIN, Employment Expectations Indicator, Balance, SA, Index | ★ |
| Germany, Consumer Surveys, DG ECFIN, Consumer Confidence, Balance, SA | ★ |
| Germany, Economic Surveys, DG ECFIN, Economic Sentiment Indicator, Balance, SA, Index | ★ |
| Germany, Business Surveys, Ifo, Business Survey, Trade, Expectations with Regard to Employees in the Next 3 Months, Balance | ★ |
| Germany, Truck Toll Mileage Index, Total, Calendar Adjusted (X13 JDemetra+), SA (X13 JDemetra+), Index | ★ |
| Germany, Foreign Trade, Total, Import, Calendar Adjusted (X13 JDemetra+), SA (X13 JDemetra+), EUR | ★ |
Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators; the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
Top indicators identified
Germany, Business Surveys, Ifo, Business Survey, Manufacturing Industry, Total, Expectations the Next 6 Months, Balance, SA
Reflects manufacturers' outlook on economic conditions and business prospects over the next six months. Positive readings signal optimism; negative readings signal pessimism.
Germany, Leading Indicators, Central Bank of Germany, Weekly Activity Index (WAI), Index
A weekly Bundesbank gauge of real-time economic activity that blends high-frequency data such as financial transactions, mobility and energy use. Rising values point to stronger activity, falling values to a slowdown.
Germany, Economic Surveys, ZEW, Financial Market Report, Economic Expectations, Balance
Tracks financial market experts' views on Germany's future economic development. Positive balances signal optimism about growth; negative balances signal pessimism.
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