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Forecasting the constrained demand for semiconductors

Forecasting the capacity utilization for semiconductors requires analyzing a blend of factors, such as the import of Semiconductors, retail sales of electronics, and financial indicators such as the Intel and NXP stock prices and the S&P 400 Semiconductors.

92%
Accuracy
25+
Leading indicators
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Leading indicators identified with Indicio

Forecasted variable: United States, Capacity Utilization, Computers, Communications EQ, and Semiconductors Total, SA

IndicatorRelevance
United States, Imports - Computers, Peripherals and Semiconductors (Census), SA, USD★★★
Intel stock price★★★
United States, Retail Sales, Electronics and Appliance Stores, Current Prices, SA, USD★★
Standard and Poor's 400 Semiconductors★★
NXP Semiconductors★★
United States, Exports - Computers, Peripherals and Semiconductors (Census), SA, USD★★
United States, Production, Aggregates, Non-Energy, Computers, Communications EQ, and Semiconductors, Volume, SA, Index★
MSCI All Country World Index Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment United States Dollar★
Google trends: US - Volvo Construction Equipment★
United States - Manufacturing PMI★★

Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators; the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.

Top indicators identified

United States, Imports - Computers, Peripherals and Semiconductors (Census), SA, USD

Import volume signals domestic demand: rising imports of these products suggest growing demand within the country.

Intel stock price

Offers insight into industry trends and possible shifts in demand, but should be combined with other factors rather than used on its own.

United States, Retail Sales, Electronics and Appliance Stores, Current Prices, SA, USD

Reflects consumer spending on electronics. Since semiconductors are key components, a rise in these sales can indicate rising demand.

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