Leading indicators identified with Indicio
Forecasted variable: United States, Retail Sales, Total, Calendar Adjusted, SA, USD
| Indicator | Relevance |
|---|---|
| United States, Unemployment, Jobless Claims, Initial, Total, SA, 4 Week Moving Average | ★★★ |
| United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 6 Month, Yield | ★★ |
| United States, Commodities & Energy Prices, Retail Fuel Prices, Gasoline, Regular, All Formulations, Average Price, USD | ★★ |
| Trend: United States, Domestic Trade, Retail Trade, Retail Sales, Total, Calendar Adjusted, SA, USD | ★ |
| United States, Oil & Gas, Rig Counts, By Basin, Total US Rig Count, Gas | ★ |
| United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 7 Year, Yield | ★ |
| United States, Interbank Rates, LIBOR, 6 Month, Fixing | – |
| United States, Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers, U.S. City Average, All Items, SA, Change Y/Y | – |
| United States, Consumer Surveys, Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Index, Total, Total, SA, Index | – |
| United States, Electricity, New York City, USD | – |
| United States, Consumer Surveys, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, Inflation Expectations, Median 1-Year Ahead, SA | – |
| United States, Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers, U.S. City Average, All Items Less Food & Energy, SA, Index | – |
| United States, Business Surveys, ISM, Report on Business, Manufacturing, Purchasing Managers', SA, Index | – |
| United States, Balance Sheet & Flows of MFI Sector, Commercial Banks, Assets, Bank Credit, Loans & Leases in Bank Credit, Real Estate, Residential, Total, SA, USD | – |
| United States, Interbank Rates, LIBOR, 3 Month, Fixing | – |
| United States, Real Estate Prices, Home Value Index, All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op), United States, SA, USD, Zillow, Residential, Prices | – |
| United States, Traffic, Rail, Intermodal Units Originated, Total | – |
| United States, Balance Sheet & Flows of MFI Sector, Commercial Banks, Assets, Bank Credit, Loans & Leases in Bank Credit, Real Estate, Residential, Total, SA, USD | – |
| United States, Mortgage Lending Rates, Freddie Mac PMMS, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage, Total, Average Interest Rate | – |
| United States, Unemployment, National, Jobless Claims, Current Seasonal Factors for Adjusting Weekly Initial Claims | – |
| United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 10 Year, Yield | – |
| United States, Investor Surveys, AAII, Sentiment Survey, Bull-Bear Spread | – |
| United States, Mortgage Lending Rates, MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, MBA, Jumbo, 30-Year, Total Points | – |
Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators; the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators. The relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
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United States, Unemployment, Jobless Claims, Initial, Total, SA, 4 Week Moving Average
Measures the average number of people filing initial unemployment claims over the past four weeks. It is a key gauge of job market strength and stability.
United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 6 Month, Yield
Shows the return investors earn for holding six-month government bonds to maturity. It indicates short-term interest rate trends and the broader economic outlook.
United States, Retail Fuel Prices, Gasoline, Regular, All Formulations, Average Price, USD
Shows the average U.S. retail price per gallon of regular gasoline across all formulations. It offers insight into the health and dynamics of the energy market.
“Indicio has continuously improved our forecasts and added features that automate and support our business process.”
How a leading retailer increased their market forecast accuracy by 42% and optimized data-driven decision making
Challenge: Inefficient resource allocation caused by unclear market shifts and inaccurate demand forecasts. A univariate model limited their use of leading indicators, leading to missed opportunities, higher costs, and revenue loss.
Solution: Using Indicio, they identified new, stronger market-leading indicators, which improved forecast accuracy and their ability to detect trend shifts.