Leading indicators identified with Indicio
Forecasted variable: Euro Zone, New Passenger Car Registration, Total, Calendar Adjusted, SA
| Indicator | Relevance |
|---|---|
| Euro Zone, Industry Survey, Total Manufacturing, Production Expectations, Business Surveys, Euro Zone, Balance, SA | ★★★★ |
| China, Freight Transport Turnover, Total | ★★ |
| Consumer Survey, All Respondents, Total, Intention to Buy A Car Within the Next 12 Months, Euro Zone, Balance, SA | ★★ |
| China, Freight Transport Turnover, Waterway | ★★ |
| Germany, Orders Received, New Orders, Manufacturing Industry, Constant Prices, Calendar Adjusted, SA, Index, 2015 = 100 | ★★ |
| Germany, Production, Manufacturing Industry, Constant Prices, Calendar Adjusted, SA, Index, 2015 = 100 | ★ |
| Euro Zone, Industry Survey, Total Manufacturing, Stocks of Finished Products, Business Surveys, Euro Zone, Balance, SA | ★ |
| Trend: Euro Zone, New Passenger Car Registration, Total, Calendar Adjusted, SA | ★ |
| Retail confidence indicator EU27 | ★ |
| Euro Zone, Industry Survey, Total Manufacturing, Employment Expectations, Business Surveys, Euro Zone, Balance, SA | ★ |
| Euro Zone, Industry Survey, Total Manufacturing, Production Trend Observed in Recent Months, Business Surveys, Euro Zone, Balan | ★ |
| Economic sentiment indicator EU27 | ★ |
| Consumer confidence indicator EU27 | ★ |
| Euro Zone, Industry Survey, Total Manufacturing, Order Books, Business Surveys, Euro Zone, Balance, SA | ★ |
| Consumer Survey, All Respondents, Total, Consumer Confidence Indicator, Euro Zone, Balance | ★ |
Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators; the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
Top indicators identified
Euro Zone, Industry Survey, Total Manufacturing, Production Expectations, Business Surveys, Euro Zone, Balance, SA
This variable provides valuable insights into the expectations and sentiment of the manufacturing sector. Production expectations reflect the anticipated level of manufacturing activity in the Euro Zone.
China, Freight Transport Turnover, Total
This variable typically does not have a direct causal relationship with the passenger car registrations, but its relationship with automotive production is a factor that is worth considering.
Consumer Survey, All Respondents, Total, Intention to Buy A Car Within the Next 12 Months, Euro Zone, Balance, SA
This variable gives insight into the intentions of individuals in the Euro Zone to buy a car within the next 12 months, which can directly affect new passenger car registrations.
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Challenge: Minimize forecast error margin and extend coverage of more markets for both demand and production.
Solution: Using Indicio, the company established continuous forecasting with a minimized error margin, identified new and stronger market-leading indicators, and set up a structured forecasting process for all markets.