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Forecasting Palm Oil Prices

Palm oil prices depend on many interconnected factors. The most significant include the U.S. dollar exchange rates for the Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso, palm kernel oil and crude oil prices, palm oil stock levels, and palm oil prices themselves.

96%
Accuracy
< 1 min
Leading indicators

Leading indicators identified with Indicio

Forecasted variable: Palm Oil Crude Malaysian Cost, Insurance and Freight Rotterdam United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne

IndicatorRelevance
Crude Palm Oil Malaysia Local Delivery Position 1★★★★
Malaysia, FX Spot Rates, MYR per USD★★★
Philippine Peso to United States Dollar★★
Palm Kernel Oil Malaysian Cost, Insurance and Freight Rotterdam United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne★
Malaysia, Palm Oil, Stock Level, Ending Stocks★
Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe 1★
Malaysia, Agricultural Production, Production, Palm Kernel★
Malaysia, Borneo Oil Ord Shs, Close, MYR★
Malaysia, Sarawak Oil Palms Ord Shs, Close, MYR★
World, Commodity Indices, S&P GSCI, Soybeans Index, Total Return, Close, USD★
Indonesia, Food Prices, Traditional Market, National, Cooking Oil, IDR★
Indonesia, Palm Oil (Unrefined), CPO, Spot Prices, Medan, IDR★
Malaysia, Agricultural Production, Production, Crude Palm Oil★
China, Foreign Trade, Import, HS, Animal & Vegetable Oils, Fats & Waxes, Total, USD★
Malaysia, Negri Sembilan Oil Palms Ord Shs, Close, MYR★

Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators; the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.

Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators. The relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.

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Crude Palm Oil Malaysia Local Delivery Position 1

The benchmark spot price for crude palm oil delivered within Malaysia at the nearest contract position. It guides domestic pricing and signals short-term market sentiment.

Malaysia, FX Spot Rates, MYR per USD

The real-time rate for converting Malaysian ringgit to U.S. dollars. It affects trade competitiveness, capital flows, and palm oil pricing, since those contracts are usually in dollars.

Philippine Peso to United States Dollar

The number of pesos needed to buy one U.S. dollar. It reflects the peso's strength and affects trade balance, import costs, and dollar-priced goods like palm oil.

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