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Forecasting Coconut Oil Prices

Several interconnected factors influence coconut oil prices. The main signals are Borneo Oil's share price, Indonesian cooking oil prices, and the Soybeans Index, which together reflect supply conditions, substitution between oils, and overall market sentiment.

96%
Accuracy
< 1 min
Leading indicators

Leading indicators identified with Indicio

Forecasted variable: Coconut Oil, 1 Month Cost, Insurance and Freight North West Europe, United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne

IndicatorRelevance
Malaysia, Borneo Oil Ord Shs, Close, MYR★★★★
Indonesia, Food Prices, Traditional Market, National, Cooking Oil, IDR★★★
World, Commodity Indices, S&P GSCI, Soybeans Index, Total Return, Close, USD★★
Malaysia, Sarawak Oil Palms Ord Shs, Close, MYR★
Indonesia, Palm Oil (Unrefined), CPO, Spot Prices, Medan, IDR★
Malaysia, FX Spot Rates, MYR per USD★
China, Foreign Trade, Import, HS, Animal & Vegetable Oils, Fats & Waxes, Total, USD★
Malaysia, Agricultural Production, Production, Crude Palm Oil★
Malaysia, Agricultural Production, Production, Palm Kernel★
Malaysia, Negri Sembilan Oil Palms Ord Shs, Close, MYR★
Malaysia, Palm Oil, Stock Level, Ending Stocks★
Philippine Peso to United States Dollar★

Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators; the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.

Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators. The relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.

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Malaysia, Borneo Oil Ord Shs, Close, MYR

The daily closing share price of Borneo Oil Berhad, in Malaysian ringgit. As an edible oils company, its share price can reflect market expectations for production, demand, and pricing, including for coconut oil.

Indonesia, Food Prices, Traditional Market, National, Cooking Oil, IDR

The national average retail price of cooking oil in Indonesian rupiah at traditional markets. It reflects consumer-level price trends, household affordability, and possible substitution with coconut and palm oil.

World, Commodity Indices, S&P GSCI, Soybeans Index, Total Return, Close, USD

Tracks soybean futures within the S&P GSCI, in US dollars, including returns from rolling futures positions. Because soybeans are a major edible oilseed, the index influences global vegetable oil markets and substitution trends affecting coconut and palm oil.

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