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Forecast template

Forecasting the aviation market

Forecasting aviation demand requires analyzing a blend of macroeconomic factors such as ticket and traffic volumes, fuel prices, regulation and technology, which shape passenger demand, airline profitability and market dynamics. Assessing and anticipating these factors is vital for understanding market volatility.

94%
Accuracy
36
Leading indicators
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Leading indicators identified with Indicio

Forecasted variable: Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Aircraft and Parts

IndicatorRelevance
Trend: Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Aircraft and Parts★★★
United States, Exports, Capital Goods, Civilian Aircraft, SA, USD★★
Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders: Nondefense Aircraft and Parts★★
Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods s★
Outbound Price Index (International Services): Air Freight★
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast★
American Airlines Group–
Manufacturers' Total Inventories: Nondefense Aircraft and Parts–
Producer Price Index by Industry: Nonscheduled Air Freight Chartering: Primary Services–
Google trends: Airplane, US–

Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators; the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.

Use cases

  1. 01 Get an accurate overview of where demand is headed

    Use one tool instead of piecing together several sources to forecast demand across all end markets, building and updating forecasts in a few clicks.

  2. 02 Identify the leading indicators relevant to your market

    Access multiple data sources in one place to find the indicators that most affect demand or sales, for a fuller view of demand drivers.

  3. 03 Detect market trend shifts months ahead

    Understanding the demand dynamics of each market helps you spot industry trend shifts early.

Accurately forecast demand months ahead with improved forecasting accuracy.

We'll help you identify your leading indicators in this session.

Top indicators identified

Trend: Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Aircraft and Parts

Tracking this trend shows the direction and magnitude of changes in new orders, which helps gauge market conditions and future demand.

Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders: Nondefense Aircraft and Parts

The backlog of orders received but not yet completed or delivered, indicating future demand that manufacturers must fulfill.

United States, Exports, Capital Goods, Civilian Aircraft, SA, USD

Reflects international demand for civilian aircraft, which in turn influences manufacturers' new orders for nondefense aircraft and parts.

“Indicio has continuously improved our forecasts and added features that automate and support our business process.”
Steven Van Poecke · Head of Marketing Intelligence, Toyota Material Handling

How an aviation manufacturing company improved their forecast accuracy by 40%

Challenge: The company needed to adjust production capacity quickly to shifts in market trends, which required accurate sales volume forecasts it did not have.

Solution: Using Indicio, it identified new and stronger leading indicators, improving forecast accuracy and its ability to detect trend shifts.

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