Economic forecasts

Nowcasting US Non-Farm Payrolls

Nowcasting the US NFP requires analyzing a blend of high-frequency indicators, like Initial jobless claims, Purchasing Managers index, Deposits, Inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment rates, as they provide insight into the overall health of the labor market. Additionally, industry-specific trends, government policies, and seasonal hiring patterns play critical roles.

100+

Forecasting
models
evaluated

40+

Indicators
evaluated

99,6%

forecast
accuracy
(1-MAPE)

*Indicio identifies the best leading indicators based upon an advanced variable selection methodology, read more here

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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
United States, Nonfarm, Payroll, Total (1-Month Net Change), SA

Indicator name	Influence
United States, Unemployment, National, Jobless Claims, Initial, Total	⭐⭐⭐⭐
United States, Unemployment, National, Jobless Claims, Initial, Total, SA, 4 Week Moving Average	⭐⭐⭐
United States, Unemployment, National, Jobless Claims, Initial, Total, SA	⭐⭐
United States, Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers, U.S. City Average, All Items Less Food & Energy, SA, Index	⭐
United States, Domestic Trade, Retail Trade, Johnson Redbook Index, Total, Same Store, Change Y/Y	⭐
United States, EIA, Oil & Gas, Crude Oil, Field Production	⭐
United States, Balance Sheet & Flows of MFI Sector, Federal Reserve Banks, Assets, Total, All Banks, USD	⭐
United States, New Home Sales, Total	⭐
United States, Traffic, Rail, Intermodal Units Originated, Total	⭐
United States, Balance Sheet & Flows of MFI Sector, Federal Reserve Banks, Collateralization of Currency, By Type	⭐
United States, Commercial Banks, Deposits, Total, SA, USD	⭐
Monthly Supply of New Houses in the United States, SA	⭐
United States, Business Surveys, ISM, Report on Business, Manufacturing, Purchasing Managers', SA, Index	⭐
NASDAQ Composite Index	⭐

Top indicators identified

United States, Jobless Claims, Initial, Total

Jobless claims indicate the number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting the current state of the labor market and economic conditions. Tracking this metric provides insights into employment trends and the overall health of the economy.

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United States, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average, SA

CPI measures the average change in prices over time. This index reflects the overall cost of living and is seasonally adjusted (SA) to account for predictable fluctuations, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. The CPI-U is widely used as an economic indicator to gauge inflation and adjust income payments, such as Social Security.

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United States, Domestic Trade, Retail Trade, Johnson Redbook Index, Total, Same Store, Change Y/Y

The Johnson Redbook Index is a measure of retail sales growth in the United States, focusing on same-store sales at large chain stores. The "Total, Same Store, Change Y/Y" component represents the year-over-year percentage change in retail sales for stores that have been open for at least one year. This data provides insight into trends in consumer spending and overall retail performance in the domestic U.S. trade sector.

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