palm-oil

Forecasting Palm Oil Prices

Palm oil price is influenced by a complex set of interrelated factors. Among the most significant are currency exchange rates against the U.S. dollar, particularly the Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso, as well as movements in palm kernel oil and crude oil prices, fluctuations in palm oil stock levels, and shifts in palm oil prices themselves.

< 1 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

30+

# of leading
indicators tested

96%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
Palm Oil Crude Malaysian Cost, Insurance and Freight Rotterdam United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne
Indicator name Influence
Crude Palm Oil Malaysia Local Delivery Position 1 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Malaysia, FX Spot Rates, Macrobond, MYR per USD ⭐⭐⭐
Philippine Peso to United States Dollar ⭐⭐
Palm Kernel Oil Malaysian Cost, Insurance and Freight Rotterdam United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne
Malaysia, Palm Oil, Stock Level, Ending Stocks
Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe 1
Malaysia, Agricultural Production, Production, Palm Kernel
Malaysia, Borneo Oil Ord Shs, Close, MYR
Malaysia, Sarawak Oil Palms Ord Shs, Close, MYR
World, Commodity Indices, S&P GSCI, Soybeans Index, Total Return, Close, USD
Indonesia, Food Prices, Traditional Market, National, Cooking Oil, IDR
Indonesia, Palm Oil (Unrefined), CPO, Spot Prices, Medan, IDR
Malaysia, Agricultural Production, Production, Crude Palm Oil
China, Foreign Trade, Import, HS, Animal & Vegetable Oils, Fats & Waxes, Total, USD
Malaysia, Negri Sembilan Oil Palms Ord Shs, Close, MYR

Top indicators identified

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil Malaysia Local Delivery Position 1

This variable refers to the benchmark physical market price for crude palm oil delivered within Malaysia under the nearest (front-month) contract position. It reflects spot-market supply and demand dynamics, serving as a key reference point for domestic pricing, trade settlements, and as an indicator of short-term market sentiment.

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Malaysia FX Spot Rate

Malaysia, FX Spot Rates, Macrobond, MYR per USD

This variable represents the real-time market exchange rate at which the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) can be exchanged for one U.S. dollar (USD). It reflects immediate currency market conditions and is a critical indicator for trade competitiveness, capital flows, and commodity pricing, particularly in palm oil markets where USD-denominated contracts dominate.

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Philippine Peso to dollar

Philippine Peso to United States Dollar

This variable indicates how many Philippine pesos are required to purchase one U.S. dollar. It is a key measure of the peso’s relative strength in global currency markets and directly influences the Philippines’ trade balance, import costs, and commodity pricing, especially for USD-denominated goods such as palm oil.

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